DN10 | The Litmus Test

A pivotal moment where the Business Cycle and the 4-Year Cycle collide.

This week we break our regular programming schedule to bring DN10 forwards by a week. Bi-weekly scheduling works really well for the speed at which the markets generally move, and also for the type of analysis that we present in these long detailed articles. We’re not here to worry about short-term price action or get into intraday charts, unless there is some relevance to the larger trend; however, what a week we have just had in Crypto!

This issue is intended as a follow-up to last week’s DN09 | The Final Flush, so please go back and read that first. We’ve made some good calls recently, some of which have only come into fruition in the last week. Obviously, we expected this flush lower on Bitcoin, but we also predicted that the ISM PMI would come in over 50, and that data point has also come through.

I note that there are a number of new subscribers recently, so I just want to welcome you all here and thank you for your support. I hope you will stay as we continue to work hard over the coming months and years.

In This Issue

I’m titling this issue The Litmus Test, because I think this is a moment in time where the four-year cycle and the business cycle are directly opposing forces. There is a lot of speculation as to whether the four-year cycle is dead or not, and whether business cycle analysis is even relevant anymore after such a significant decline in Bitcoin.

The recent capitulation spike is obviously the elephant in the room, so we will address Bitcoin’s technical price action, alongside a discussion around the structural misalignment of these two cycle narratives. What happens next is a litmus test for both camps, so there’s a lot to unpack and we will map out exactly what we think that could mean going forward.

Contents

• Bitcoin Cycle Dissonance

• Macro Expansion

  • MTO Update / Q&A

  • ISM PMI

• Bitcoin Elliott Wave

  • Expanded Flats

  • Alternate Zig-Zag

• Bitcoin Production Cost

• A Note on Stocks