DN09 | The Final Flush

A cohesive macro-technical framework that is now in full alignment.

Introduction

Recent price action on Bitcoin falls perfectly into the technical framework that we have been working through and tracking over the last couple of months. It feels a little odd to be celebrating a move lower; however, subscribers will know that this was exactly what we expected to see. Bitcoin has been testing our patience over the past few months, but it is that patience that has been required to see this short-term pain through.

Since this newsletter launched back in Oct, we have worked to re-evaluate Bitcoin’s technical price action alongside the broader macro environment, the aim being to fully align both technical and macro frameworks into a cohesive overall market thesis. It would be easy to just report on what has happened in the markets, and many do just that, but that’s not the aim here. We want to present an overall forward-looking idea that cuts out the noise and allows investors to take a more comfortable long-term view.

In This Issue

In this issue, we will go over updated technical analysis for Bitcoin, in detail, to see how close we are to a bottom, identify key levels to watch, and also evaluate alternate scenarios that we may need to be aware of in the short term. Following that, we will work through the recent changes to the macro data, which have been quite significant over the past few weeks.

From the end of 2025, whilst our framework has remained absolutely clear, strong rallies in precious metals have been taking all the attention (read: liquidity) as they push to euphoric highs. Crypto, meanwhile, has continued to languish, while the business cycle has remained soft, and recent additional weakness has sent Bitcoin lower in line with our technical framework and expectations that we have been mapping out for months.

Looking at the charts today however, I see more elements of our overall thesis in full alignment than at any previous time, and I think that February is going to be a very big month. We look at commodities like Gold and Copper, and combined with our own calculated ISM prediction, we break down exactly why we think the business cycle is about to move into expansion.

I’m excited to dig into this today, so without further ado let’s get on with it!!

Contents

• Bitcoin Elliott Wave - A deep dive into the primary count, plus bullish and bearish variations to watch.

  • Primary count

  • Bullish alternate

  • Bearish alternate

• Bitcoin/Gold update

• Commodities

  • Gold parabolic top

  • Silver exhaustion

  • Copper rotation

• Business Cycle

  • Copper/Gold ratio “double tap”

  • ISM expansion forecast