DN20 | Make Or Break

Ten months in, and the market still has one question left to answer.

Welcome to the 20th edition of the Decode Newsletter. Twenty issues in, and I want to thank everyone who has stuck with us through what has been a long and frustrating stretch for the market. The last edition was a sprawling six-month review, a one off article that was one of the longest I have written here, but also an honest evaluation of both the market and our read of it so far.

After a review that broad, it is easy to lose the thread of the single thing that actually matters day to day. The macro read tells us the regime is expansionary and it has done for months, so that part is settled. What is not settled, and what everything now hangs on, is the structure of price itself. So rather than run the whole thing through again, this issue is a deliberately Bitcoin focused technical review.

Since the last issue Bitcoin has continued to hold above the weekly 200 sma, after reclaiming the flush to 57.8k, but has also been rejected for the second time at that key 66.7k horizontal support and resistance level. Whether this is just a pull back or the start of more downside, that’s one of the things we will look at today.

In This Issue

• Bitcoin structure and key levels

• Bitcoin production cost floor

• Momentum indicators

• Supertrend across timeframes

• The level that confirms reversal

• Bitcoin daily chart and Bollinger Bands

• Three paths mapped out

• Wyckoff accumulation update

• Elliott Wave update

• Nasdaq correction