DN16 | Secular Waves

Evaluating the business cycle expansion, Bitcoin's long-term technicals and multi-cycle Elliott Wave structure, and the structural signs of life across the broader crypto market.

For months, we have been tracking the subtle shifts in the business cycle, waiting for a definitive, market-based confirmation that expansion is truly underway. Recently, we finally got it, and our indicators have breached our key alert levels, historically signalling that the broader macro environment is about to heat up.

Against this strengthening macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s short-term price action remains frustratingly choppy. However, if we step back from the noise, the longer-term technicals are telling a different story. In this issue, we will examine Bitcoin’s technical outlook on the monthly timeframe, before diving into a comprehensive, multi-cycle Elliott Wave analysis. I want to show you exactly why I believe the most recent bull market was just the first leg of a much larger sequence.

Beyond Bitcoin, we also need to address the broader crypto ecosystem. After suffering through a brutal, multi-year winter, we are finally seeing structural signs of life across the altcoin market. We will break down why capital rotation could be right around the corner. Consideration of these different technical and macro outcomes is what gives us our edge, so let’s get straight into the charts.

Contents

• Business Cycle

  Copper/Gold

• Bitcoin

  Technical Analysis

  Long-Term Elliott Wave

  Diffusion of Innovations

• Altcoin Market

  Dominance

  ETH/BTC

• Cycle Timing Projections