DN14 | Mapping The Next Move

Pinpointing key Elliott Wave confirmation levels across primary and alternate scenarios, alongside our latest macro, momentum and cycle analysis.

Welcome to the 14th edition of the Decode Newsletter. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Bitcoin climb up through our key 72-76k resistance range and make its first test of the 21-week ema, putting in a high of 79.5k. There is no doubt that the market is starting to look more bullish, and crypto market sentiment as a whole has seen some much-needed relief.

But to understand if this is a temporary bounce or the start of the next major leg higher, we need to look under the hood. In this issue, we will break down the most recent market developments and cross-reference them with our framework to help build a picture. We will explore long-term momentum and unpack the macro landscape, looking at the business cycle, the Copper/Gold ratio, and Central Bank Balance Sheets. I also tackle the mainstream 4-year cycle narrative, breaking down the historical data to see if Bitcoin truly is bound by a strict 48-month schedule.

Finally, after touching on the incredible recent strength in equities, we will dive deep into our Elliott Wave analysis. I will outline the primary and alternate scenarios, and introduce some low-time-frame (LTF) charts to examine the wave structure in detail and pinpoint exactly where our bullish and bearish confirmation levels sit, so you know exactly what to watch.

Let’s get into it.