DN11 | Fear Without Fire

A rigorous technical evaluation of a potential Bitcoin bottom, analysing wave structures, market dominance, and leading macro indicators.

In This Issue

In this issue, we pivot from our recent macro-heavy focus to take a detailed look at the technicals. With extreme fear dominating the market and endless comparisons to the 2022 bear market circulating, I felt it was time to address the elephant in the room. We will break down exactly why we think the current capitulation lacks the systemic catalysts of the FTX era, and why this extreme negative sentiment might be misplaced.

While the macro picture continues to tick along and align with our broader expectations, the short-term price action requires careful navigation. We will explore Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structures, analyse shifting market dominance, and look at key proxies like Gold and MSTR to help us map the probabilities of a cycle bottom.

Finally, we will address the last remaining macro risk: The stock market.

Contents

• Bitcoin Primary Count: We analyse the 2022 bear market fractal, and evaluate the downside risk.

• Alternate Count: Assessing the potential for a mid-cycle liquidity squeeze and a fast move higher.

• Dominance: Why the technical structure of BTC.D points to an impending period of altcoin outperformance.

• Gold: Tracking the corrective wave B and what a potential breakdown means for capital rotation.

• MSTR: Using Strategy as a proxy to validate Bitcoin’s larger degree wave 2 correction.

• SPX: Evaluating the stock market’s 5-wave impulse and the potential risks of a broader correction.