DN08 | Intermarket Signals

Unlocking the signal through cross-asset analysis, we analyse the business cycle turnaround, extreme indicators in Gold, the AI trend in stocks, and an updated liquidity model for Bitcoin analysis.

In This Issue

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen Bitcoin’s price action looking somewhat constructive, temporarily rallying back up to almost $98k. This is largely in line with what we are seeing in macro and expecting more of as we go further into 2026. While Bitcoin still needs to reclaim key levels to shift momentum, and before sentiment can really recover, the signs are there.

In today’s issue, we will go over a number of key macro charts, with a particular focus on cross-asset analysis, as that currently offers a very compelling and interesting picture for crypto that is worth discussing in detail. Macro analysis on its own, however, cannot exist in a vacuum and must be supported by price action, so we will dig much deeper into technical analysis today and take an in-depth look at the setup for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

In addition, it’s difficult to ignore the AI landscape; it is without doubt the most dominant emerging technology trend we have seen in many years, and something that is not just taking over big tech stocks, but has also become a core narrative for much of crypto. As the S&P500 approaches that all-important 7000 psychological level, I felt compelled to make sure we also covered it in this issue.

• Copper/Gold Ratio: A detailed look at this cross-asset metric, and why it is the leading indicator for the business cycle turn, moving ahead of the ISM.

• Bitcoin vs Gold: Valuations are deep in historical bear market territory. We map the Elliott Wave structure pointing to a bottom.

• Gold Exhaustion: With monthly RSI hitting levels not seen since 1973, we analyse the likelihood of a major rotation into digital assets.

• Bitcoin Technicals: A forensic comparison of the 2022 bear vs the 2026 macro reality. We introduce the MTO Momentum Mode and map detailed Elliott Wave scenarios for both the primary expanded flat and an alternate blow-off top.

• Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity: Introducing our updated liquidity model that integrates the quantity of money issued with the availability of global liquidity.

• Stock Market: As the S&P500 approaches the 7000 level, we analyse the dominant trend driving capital markets.

Introduction

In the last issue, I wrote extensively about how the markets were primed for rotation, focusing on recapping the overall 2026 thesis. However, the question that remains is whether the markets are ready right now. This time we’re going to jump straight into the charts and break it all down with a strong technical focus. Let’s dig in…