DN06 | The Production Floor

Combining Elliott Wave targets with our new Production Cost model, we pinpoint the Bitcoin bottom, then look ahead to 2026 macro expansion and the resilience of the AI trade.

Introduction

In this issue, we take a detailed look at one of Bitcoin’s key fundamental drivers, Bitcoin mining itself, and introduce a new ‘Bitcoin Production Cost’ model that offers a unique perspective and a fundamental floor for Bitcoin price analysis.

Short-term price action remains choppy and sentiment is divided, but this fundamental lens helps us cut through the noise. However, defining the floor is only half the battle; we must also look at what drives the next expansion. To that end, we revisit the macro landscape for 2026, examining the latest signals from our Macro Trend Oscillator and new Financial Conditions Index. Finally, we check in on the AI trade to see if the long-term thesis still holds water.

In This Issue

• Production Cost Model: A deep dive into our proprietary miner profitability tool.

• Miner Capitulation: Why further downside could signal a generational buy zone.

• Technical Analysis: Overlaying Elliott Wave counts on fundamental floors.

• Macro 2026: Tracking the shift to macroeconomic expansion.

• Stocks & AI: Why the tech rally is far from over despite short-term risks.