Against this strengthening macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s short-term price action remains frustratingly choppy. However, if we step back from the noise, the longer-term technicals are telling a different story. In this issue, we will examine Bitcoin’s technical outlook on the monthly timeframe, before diving into a comprehensive, multi-cycle Elliott Wave analysis. I want to show you exactly why I believe the most recent bull market was just the first leg of a much larger sequence.

Beyond Bitcoin, we also need to address the broader crypto ecosystem. After suffering through a brutal, multi-year winter, we are finally seeing structural signs of life across the altcoin market. We will break down why capital rotation could be right around the corner. Consideration of these different technical and macro outcomes is what gives us our edge, so let’s get straight into the charts.

Contents

• Business Cycle

  Copper/Gold

• Bitcoin

  Technical Analysis

  Long-Term Elliott Wave

  Diffusion of Innovations

• Altcoin Market

  Dominance

  ETH/BTC

• Cycle Timing Projections

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From there, I want to briefly touch on the relentless strength we are seeing in equities, and why standing in front of this potential AI-fuelled melt-up could be a dangerous game. The recent move back to all-time highs has been something of a catalyst in reversing bearish market sentiment, and we can see just how quickly that starts to trickle down into other assets.

The primary focus of this issue is exactly what the title suggests: Altcoin Outperformance. We will dive into a confluence of charts and catalysts that are lining up in favour of the broader crypto ecosystem. We will take a look at upcoming policy changes and the impact that could be seen there, alongside some key charts and market indicators that are suggesting altcoins will soon outperform. We’re already starting to see some evidence in the market that this may be the case, so stay tuned until the very end where we also break down the charts of Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and Bittensor.

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But to understand if this is a temporary bounce or the start of the next major leg higher, we need to look under the hood. In this issue, we will break down the most recent market developments and cross-reference them with our framework to help build a picture. We will explore long-term momentum and unpack the macro landscape, looking at the business cycle, the Copper/Gold ratio, and Central Bank Balance Sheets. I also tackle the mainstream 4-year cycle narrative, breaking down the historical data to see if Bitcoin truly is bound by a strict 48-month schedule.

Finally, after touching on the incredible recent strength in equities, we will dive deep into our Elliott Wave analysis. I will outline the primary and alternate scenarios, and introduce some low-time-frame (LTF) charts to examine the wave structure in detail and pinpoint exactly where our bullish and bearish confirmation levels sit, so you know exactly what to watch.

Let’s get into it.

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We take a detailed look at Bitcoin’s technicals, which are starting to show favourable signs, despite the 200-week sma hovering ominously just below.

And finally, after many requests, I have put together a detailed look at the Bittensor network. We talk about the network’s design philosophy and economics, its unique and powerful subnet architecture, Alpha tokens and yield. All this, alongside a technical analysis breakdown, is wrapped up into a cohesive investment thesis.

Contents

• Macro Update

  • Business Cycle

  • Liquidity

  • Oil EWT

• Bitcoin Update

  • Classical Analysis

  • Primary EWT Count

  • Alternate EWT Count(s)

• Bittensor Analysis

  • Bitcoin vs Bittensor

  • Beyond The Base Layer

  • Alpha Tokens and Yield

  • Technical Analysis

  • TAO Tensor Law

  • Subnet Selections

  • Investment Thesis

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Because we’ve had a few weeks’ break, I’ve decided to just go over and recap everything from end to end, from the macro to the technicals. I’ve tried to cover as much ground as possible in this double-length issue; it’s a comprehensive refresh and the most detailed newsletter I’ve ever produced.

The ISM came in with a second expansionary signal at the end of February, but we’ve seen significant declines in both gold and the stock market during March. Geopolitical events have taken the spotlight recently with the Iran war. Oil very quickly spiked to double the price per barrel, and is still very elevated due to ongoing tensions.

Together, these converging factors are creating a classic short-term liquidity squeeze. However, while the broader markets appear increasingly turbulent, the underlying technical structures and the overall market setup for crypto remains largely unchanged.

This is a technical newsletter, and whilst I think it is important that we always acknowledge all risks, we will let the charts do the talking. As Bernard Baruch once said, “Show me the charts and I’ll tell you the news.”

So, let’s get into it - there is a lot to discuss!

Contents

• Business Cycle

• Liquidity

• Global Risk

  • Gold

  • Copper/Gold

  • Dollar Index

  • Oil

• Equities

  • S&P500

  • Russell 2000

• Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin/Gold

  • Production Cost

  • Elliott Wave Analysis

  • Bitcoin Dominance

• Altcoins

  • Altcoin Dominance

  • Ethereum

  • Solana

  • Bittensor

  • Sui

  • Velo

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In this issue, we pivot from our recent macro-heavy focus to take a detailed look at the technicals. With extreme fear dominating the market and endless comparisons to the 2022 bear market circulating, I felt it was time to address the elephant in the room. We will break down exactly why we think the current capitulation lacks the systemic catalysts of the FTX era, and why this extreme negative sentiment might be misplaced.

While the macro picture continues to tick along and align with our broader expectations, the short-term price action requires careful navigation. We will explore Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structures, analyse shifting market dominance, and look at key proxies like Gold and MSTR to help us map the probabilities of a cycle bottom.

Finally, we will address the last remaining macro risk: The stock market.

Contents

• Bitcoin Primary Count: We analyse the 2022 bear market fractal, and evaluate the downside risk.

• Alternate Count: Assessing the potential for a mid-cycle liquidity squeeze and a fast move higher.

• Dominance: Why the technical structure of BTC.D points to an impending period of altcoin outperformance.

• Gold: Tracking the corrective wave B and what a potential breakdown means for capital rotation.

• MSTR: Using Strategy as a proxy to validate Bitcoin’s larger degree wave 2 correction.

• SPX: Evaluating the stock market’s 5-wave impulse and the potential risks of a broader correction.

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This issue is intended as a follow-up to last week’s DN09 | The Final Flush, so please go back and read that first. We’ve made some good calls recently, some of which have only come into fruition in the last week. Obviously, we expected this flush lower on Bitcoin, but we also predicted that the ISM PMI would come in over 50, and that data point has also come through.

I note that there are a number of new subscribers recently, so I just want to welcome you all here and thank you for your support. I hope you will stay as we continue to work hard over the coming months and years.

In This Issue

I’m titling this issue The Litmus Test, because I think this is a moment in time where the four-year cycle and the business cycle are directly opposing forces. There is a lot of speculation as to whether the four-year cycle is dead or not, and whether business cycle analysis is even relevant anymore after such a significant decline in Bitcoin.

The recent capitulation spike is obviously the elephant in the room, so we will address Bitcoin’s technical price action, alongside a discussion around the structural misalignment of these two cycle narratives. What happens next is a litmus test for both camps, so there’s a lot to unpack and we will map out exactly what we think that could mean going forward.

Contents

• Bitcoin Cycle Dissonance

• Macro Expansion

  • MTO Update / Q&A

  • ISM PMI

• Bitcoin Elliott Wave

  • Expanded Flats

  • Alternate Zig-Zag

• Bitcoin Production Cost

• A Note on Stocks

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Recent price action on Bitcoin falls perfectly into the technical framework that we have been working through and tracking over the last couple of months. It feels a little odd to be celebrating a move lower; however, subscribers will know that this was exactly what we expected to see. Bitcoin has been testing our patience over the past few months, but it is that patience that has been required to see this short-term pain through.

Since this newsletter launched back in Oct, we have worked to re-evaluate Bitcoin’s technical price action alongside the broader macro environment, the aim being to fully align both technical and macro frameworks into a cohesive overall market thesis. It would be easy to just report on what has happened in the markets, and many do just that, but that’s not the aim here. We want to present an overall forward-looking idea that cuts out the noise and allows investors to take a more comfortable long-term view.

In This Issue

In this issue, we will go over updated technical analysis for Bitcoin, in detail, to see how close we are to a bottom, identify key levels to watch, and also evaluate alternate scenarios that we may need to be aware of in the short term. Following that, we will work through the recent changes to the macro data, which have been quite significant over the past few weeks.

From the end of 2025, whilst our framework has remained absolutely clear, strong rallies in precious metals have been taking all the attention (read: liquidity) as they push to euphoric highs. Crypto, meanwhile, has continued to languish, while the business cycle has remained soft, and recent additional weakness has sent Bitcoin lower in line with our technical framework and expectations that we have been mapping out for months.

Looking at the charts today however, I see more elements of our overall thesis in full alignment than at any previous time, and I think that February is going to be a very big month. We look at commodities like Gold and Copper, and combined with our own calculated ISM prediction, we break down exactly why we think the business cycle is about to move into expansion.

I’m excited to dig into this today, so without further ado let’s get on with it!!

Contents

• Bitcoin Elliott Wave - A deep dive into the primary count, plus bullish and bearish variations to watch.

  • Primary count

  • Bullish alternate

  • Bearish alternate

• Bitcoin/Gold update

• Commodities

  • Gold parabolic top

  • Silver exhaustion

  • Copper rotation

• Business Cycle

  • Copper/Gold ratio “double tap”

  • ISM expansion forecast

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Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen Bitcoin’s price action looking somewhat constructive, temporarily rallying back up to almost $98k. This is largely in line with what we are seeing in macro and expecting more of as we go further into 2026. While Bitcoin still needs to reclaim key levels to shift momentum, and before sentiment can really recover, the signs are there.

In today’s issue, we will go over a number of key macro charts, with a particular focus on cross-asset analysis, as that currently offers a very compelling and interesting picture for crypto that is worth discussing in detail. Macro analysis on its own, however, cannot exist in a vacuum and must be supported by price action, so we will dig much deeper into technical analysis today and take an in-depth look at the setup for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

In addition, it’s difficult to ignore the AI landscape; it is without doubt the most dominant emerging technology trend we have seen in many years, and something that is not just taking over big tech stocks, but has also become a core narrative for much of crypto. As the S&P500 approaches that all-important 7000 psychological level, I felt compelled to make sure we also covered it in this issue.

• Copper/Gold Ratio: A detailed look at this cross-asset metric, and why it is the leading indicator for the business cycle turn, moving ahead of the ISM.

• Bitcoin vs Gold: Valuations are deep in historical bear market territory. We map the Elliott Wave structure pointing to a bottom.

• Gold Exhaustion: With monthly RSI hitting levels not seen since 1973, we analyse the likelihood of a major rotation into digital assets.

• Bitcoin Technicals: A forensic comparison of the 2022 bear vs the 2026 macro reality. We introduce the MTO Momentum Mode and map detailed Elliott Wave scenarios for both the primary expanded flat and an alternate blow-off top.

• Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity: Introducing our updated liquidity model that integrates the quantity of money issued with the availability of global liquidity.

• Stock Market: As the S&P500 approaches the 7000 level, we analyse the dominant trend driving capital markets.

Introduction

In the last issue, I wrote extensively about how the markets were primed for rotation, focusing on recapping the overall 2026 thesis. However, the question that remains is whether the markets are ready right now. This time we’re going to jump straight into the charts and break it all down with a strong technical focus. Let’s dig in…

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As this is the first newsletter of 2026, I’ve gone to great lengths to make sure it is detailed and complete. It is in fact my most comprehensive update yet.

Over Q4 2025 we have discussed many topics, but today I wanted to break this issue down into two clear halves. First, I have fully recapped the macro setup, pulling all the pieces together into one cohesive report that connects all of the dots.

Macro Analysis

• Business Cycle: Major improvements to the Decode MTO that reveal a key divergence and a leading signal for the business cycle turn.

• Gold Analysis: Historical precedents for capital rotation as commodities hit exhaustion and the BTC/Gold ratio bottoms.

• Small Caps: Analysing the Russell breakout and its undeniable correlation to digital assets.

• Bitcoin Dominance: Why the bearish technical structure points to an impending rotation into altcoins.

• Thesis Validation: The specific price levels and data points that we need to see to confirm the bull run.

• Policy Tailwinds: How the Fed, the Treasury, and the Clarity Act set the stage.

• The Dollar: DXY analysis and why liquidity injections will suppress it.

Technical Analysis

Second, I’ve included detailed technical analysis and Elliott Wave forecasts for the following assets, some of which were requested by subscribers. I continue to encourage you all to comment with more altcoin suggestions for future issues.

• Bitcoin (BTC)

• Ethereum (ETH)

• Solana (SOL)

• Sui (SUI)

• Cardano (ADA)

• Litecoin (LTC)

• Avalanche (AVAX)

• Chainlink (LINK)

• Bittensor (TAO)

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In this issue, we take a detailed look at one of Bitcoin’s key fundamental drivers, Bitcoin mining itself, and introduce a new ‘Bitcoin Production Cost’ model that offers a unique perspective and a fundamental floor for Bitcoin price analysis.

Short-term price action remains choppy and sentiment is divided, but this fundamental lens helps us cut through the noise. However, defining the floor is only half the battle; we must also look at what drives the next expansion. To that end, we revisit the macro landscape for 2026, examining the latest signals from our Macro Trend Oscillator and new Financial Conditions Index. Finally, we check in on the AI trade to see if the long-term thesis still holds water.

In This Issue

• Production Cost Model: A deep dive into our proprietary miner profitability tool.

• Miner Capitulation: Why further downside could signal a generational buy zone.

• Technical Analysis: Overlaying Elliott Wave counts on fundamental floors.

• Macro 2026: Tracking the shift to macroeconomic expansion.

• Stocks & AI: Why the tech rally is far from over despite short-term risks.

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Our job here is to look strictly at the signal. While the immediate price action is discouraging, we see a growing divergence between current price and the underlying macro reality. We are witnessing a fascinating tug-of-war between short-term technical structures, which are demanding a resolution, and long-term liquidity flows, which are screaming for expansion.

In This Issue

• Bitcoin Elliott Wave

  • Review of the near-term primary count (Wave C).

  • Long Term Technical Framework: The path to a Wave 3 extension.

  • Bearish Alternate: What a year-long correction would look like.

• Small Cap Stocks (Russell 2000)

  • Analysing the “Real Economy” breakout attempt.

  • The historical correlation between Small Caps and Crypto.

  • Current divergences between price action and liquidity.

• Global Liquidity

  • Tracking the Rate-of-Change (RoC) with a 90-day lead time on Bitcoin pivots.

• Business Cycle

  • Update on the custom Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO).

  • Lagging industrial component metrics.

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We have entered an environment of extreme fear. Following a brutal rejection at key bull market levels, Bitcoin has plummeted in a waterfall-style collapse, straight down to 80k. It is a violent move reminiscent of the mid-2021 crash, the China Bitcoin mining ban and a moment I remember well, and it has the majority of investors today questioning whether it’s the end of this cycle.

In the short term, Bitcoin finds itself in an undeniably awkward spot. We are caught in the crossfire between the unwinding of the four-year cycle and a total evaporation of market sentiment. But while the timeline has been delayed, the destination hasn’t changed. If you look past the price action, the global economy is shifting. Central Banks are wrapping up QT and the global liquidity taps are being turned back on.

In this issue, we are cutting through the panic with a deep-dive Elliott Wave breakdown, tearing down every single Bitcoin count, both bullish and bearish, to give you a fully transparent look at my process. The result is a key technical pivot that suggests a contrarian reality: while the crowd is scrambling for the exit, a powerful wave 3 might be just around the corner.

In This Issue

• Bitcoin market structure

• Historic volatility analysis

• Special Elliott Wave detailed breakdown:

  • A granular breakdown of every Bitcoin count

  • Macro and asset correlations

  • A key technical pivot, the reasons and rationale

  • Bullish and bearish variants, targets and invalidations

• Sentiment analysis

• Leading macro indicators

• Global liquidity

• Nasdaq

• Small caps vs crypto

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What an environment in which to launch a newsletter! It has been a rough month in crypto, that’s for sure, but nothing too unexpected. We flagged the 55 EMA as the main target for a deeper correction right off the bat in Issue #0, and covered it in more detail in Issue #2 as it became more likely that those divergences would continue to play out.

As I put this next article together, Bitcoin has gone through a significant decline, coming to rest at the 55-week EMA, around 100k, with a total decline from the high of 21.6% wick to wick. Not a particularly large correction for Bitcoin by historical standards, yet the market has become gripped by extreme fear.

I’m a firm believer that the financial news and mainstream media, in general, are a major distraction. A quick check on what is being reported and we will read that Bitcoin has entered a bear market and that AI stock valuations have now reached unsustainable levels.

It’s all very bearish and paints a picture of imminent collapse, but there is really no meat on the bone and I don’t think it’s worth paying attention to. You have to ask yourself who is paying to run those stories and what their motives might be. For my money, it is much better to steer clear of all media narratives and just focus on the charts.

Short-term price action aside, the intended focus of these newsletters is always to cut through the noise and remain focussed on the long-term outlook, and that’s exactly what we will continue to do today. Since Bitcoin ETFs were launched, we have seen an extraordinarily controlled stair-step advance with decreasing volatility, and despite ‘cycle top is in’ sentiment everywhere, we haven’t seen the signature parabolic finale and euphoric sentiment that we have become so accustomed to at cycle tops.

In This Issue

• Macro Backdrop: Why the Fed’s slow pivot and the end of QT are setting up a tailwind for 2026.

• Business Cycle: An update on the ISM and our proprietary Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) as we wait for the expansion signal.

• Nasdaq & The AI Trade: Why the AI-driven tech boom is far from over and how OpenAI’s new structure fuels the next leg up.

• Bitcoin’s Big Picture: Cutting through the “bear market” noise to analyse the competing 4-year vs. elongated cycle theories, along with Elliott Wave charts to match.

• Altcoin Market Update: Assessing the damage and looking at the macro-inflection point that could ignite the altcoin market, including in-depth chart analysis on Ethereum and a handful of other of top coins!

• Introducing TAO Tensor Law: A first look at my experimental statistical price model for Bittensor.

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The market is at a point of maximum division, perhaps the most I’ve seen it this cycle so far. One half of my X feed thinks the top is in, and the other half of my feed thinks there is either one or two more legs higher to go. As usual, there are also the Bitcoin maxis calling for $1M, but we’ll set those longer-term projections aside to focus on the immediate cycle dynamics.

Sentiment is so split that it would be difficult for a casual observer to make a clear judgment on what comes next. This creates feelings of fear that your gains will evaporate in front of your eyes, combined with feelings of FOMO that you might miss the most spectacular move yet. No one can ever be certain about the future, but we can weigh up the probabilities if we just take ourselves away from the noise.

In This Issue

• The 4-Year Cycle - Why this fear-inducing narrative is a trap.

• The Great Rotation - Gold has finally topped. Is this the exact starting gun for Bitcoin’s most impressive move? We look at the data.

• The Unseen Signal - My proprietary Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) is flashing a bullish expansion. See the data that is completely at odds with current sentiment.

• When Altseason? - We’re closer than you think. The one chart that links altcoins to the macro shift and shows why they are coiled for a breakout.

• The 2026 Path - Mapping my primary Elliott Wave count for the real cycle top and why the bearish scenarios just don’t add up.

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It’s just under a week since Decode Newsletter Issue #1 went live, however I really want to discuss the relationship between Bitcoin and Gold, hence this update, and there’s a fair bit to unpack.

Gold is, in my opinion at least, very close to a macro top. Everyone is talking about it, it’s all over my feed, crazy price predictions are everywhere, and I’m even seeing queues of people at bullion shops in real life! All the signs are there that a major euphoric peak is in progress. How long it takes to confirm is anyone’s guess but judging by the charts I think there are only a few weeks left. Time will tell.

Bitcoin Priced in Gold

In this first chart, BTC/USD (orange), BTC/GOLD (blue), MTO with Industrials (Solid lines) and Liquidity (dashed lines), and BTC/GOLD RSI. Lets dig in!

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I’m passionate about crypto. After discovering Bitcoin everything I knew about money and investing got turned on its head. I hope to share the things that I have learned over the last 10 years with as many people as I can, and as I continue to deepen my education and involvement in this space.

The intention is to write one article every two weeks, which will include:

• Bitcoin and wider crypto market analysis from a medium to long-term perspective, identifying key structural trends and macro drivers.

• Elliott wave technical analysis and forecasts applied to bitcoin and a selection of top altcoins.

• Exclusive Trading View indicators (Coming soon!)

Inside This Issue:

• I use my own custom built tools to provide a clear, long term perspective. No noise, just data driven analysis.

• I reveal my proprietary MTO 2.0 which shows early positive signs, and two key macro signals that give the ‘green light’ for a parabolic run.

• I break down my Elliott Wave count showing why Gold’s top could be the final trigger for BTC, while updated wave counts for Bitcoin and Ethereum show potential for higher prices.

• Finally I chart popular coins SUI and TAO, one of which has a powerful Bitcoin-like narrative playing out, with the event just 60 days away!

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